El Niño Forecast
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What you are seeing

🌡️ Sea temperature anomaly

How much warmer (red) or colder (blue) than normal the ocean is, from NASA/JPL satellites (GHRSST MUR, daily). During El Niño a warm tongue stretches along the equatorial Pacific toward Peru and Ecuador. Use the slider or ▶ to watch the last 30 days.

🌧️ Rain now

Rainfall rate from the NASA GPM IMERG constellation, updated every 30 minutes (about 4–6 hours behind real time).

🔥 Active fires and dry soil

Fire hotspots detected today by the VIIRS satellite, and root-zone soil moisture from NASA SMAP: browns show dry soil where drought is building.

⚠️ Live events

Floods, droughts, cyclones and wildfires reported by GDACS (UN/EU) and NASA EONET. Events marked “matches El Niño” happen where El Niño typically brings that kind of impact.

🏙️ Cities: last 30 days

Rain in the last 30 days (Open-Meteo) compared with the 1981–2025 normal for those dates and with what typically falls during El Niño (NASA POWER).

🗺️ Typical impacts by country

Wetter (more rain, floods) · Drier (drought, fires) · Mixed by region · Milder / warmer winter. Simplified typical tendencies; every event is different. La Niña is often roughly the opposite.

Current events that match the El Niño pattern

  • Wildfire · Forest fires in Botswana, Namibia (BW) · Nov 2 · GDACS
  • Wildfire · Forest fires in Botswana (BW) · Nov 2 · GDACS
  • Wildfire · Forest fires in Botswana (BW) · Nov 2 · GDACS
  • Wildfire · Forest fires in Botswana (BW) · Nov 2 · GDACS
  • Wildfire · Forest fires in Botswana, Namibia (BW) · Nov 2 · GDACS
  • Wildfire · Forest fires in Botswana, Namibia (BW) · Nov 2 · GDACS
  • Wildfire · Forest fires in Botswana (BW) · Nov 1 · GDACS
  • Wildfire · Forest fires in China (CN) · Nov 1 · GDACS
  • Wildfire · Forest fires in China (CN) · Nov 1 · GDACS
  • Wildfire · Forest fires in Botswana (BW) · Nov 1 · GDACS
  • Wildfire · Forest fires in Australia (Australia) · Nov 1 · GDACS
  • Wildfire · Forest fires in Brazil (Brazil) · Nov 1 · GDACS

Satellite imagery courtesy of NASA EOSDIS GIBS. Events: GDACS (European Commission JRC / UN OCHA) and NASA EONET. Night lights and labels: NASA Black Marble and GIBS reference layers. This is not an official warning service: in emergencies, follow your local authorities.