El Niño Forecast

🇦🇺 El Niño and La Niña in Australia

El Niño is currently active (Niño 3.4: +3.4 °C), so these effects are the ones to watch now.

Current stateEl Niño Very strong NOAA: El Niño Advisory · issued 8 October 2026
Niño 3.4 this week+3.4 °Cweek of 2026-10-28

How much warmer (+) or colder (−) than normal the sea is this week in the Niño 3.4 zone of the Pacific.

Latest ONI+2.2 °CJAS 2026

Oceanic Niño Index: the 3-month average of that anomaly. It is NOAA's official index: +0.5 °C or more means El Niño; −0.5 °C or less, La Niña.

Sea surface (Niño 3.4)30.2 °Cactual temperature

The real sea surface temperature measured there, not the difference from normal.

Next NOAA update12 November 2026monthly discussion

Date of NOAA's next official El Niño / La Niña report.

Weather forecast, next 7 days

Sydney

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Brisbane

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Melbourne

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Weather forecast: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), updated every hour. For official warnings, follow your national weather service.

El Niño in Australia

Drier winter and spring in eastern Australia, drought and a higher bushfire risk.

La Niña in Australia

Wetter conditions in the east and north, with flooding.

These are typical tendencies; each event differs in timing and intensity. For local forecasts and warnings, follow the Bureau of Meteorology.

Frequently asked questions

How does El Niño affect Australia?

Drier winter and spring in eastern Australia, drought and a higher bushfire risk.

How does La Niña affect Australia?

Wetter conditions in the east and north, with flooding.

Where can I find official forecasts for Australia?

Follow the Bureau of Meteorology, the official source for local forecasts and warnings.

Other countries

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