El Niño Forecast

El Niño forecast: current status with official NOAA data

Current stateEl Niño Very strong NOAA: El Niño Advisory · issued 8 October 2026
Niño 3.4 this week+3.4 °Cweek of 2026-10-21

How much warmer (+) or colder (−) than normal the sea is this week in the Niño 3.4 zone of the Pacific.

Latest ONI+2.2 °CJAS 2026

Oceanic Niño Index: the 3-month average of that anomaly. It is NOAA's official index: +0.5 °C or more means El Niño; −0.5 °C or less, La Niña.

Sea surface (Niño 3.4)30.1 °Cactual temperature

The real sea surface temperature measured there, not the difference from normal.

Next NOAA update12 November 2026monthly discussion

Date of NOAA's next official El Niño / La Niña report.

“El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).”

— NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 8 October 2026

Niño 3.4 sea temperature anomaly — last 2 years

-4-3-2-10+1+2+3+4 +3.4°C Oct 24Jan 25Apr 25Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

Weekly values (°C) relative to the 1991–2020 average. Dashed lines: ±0.5 °C (El Niño / La Niña threshold) and ±1.5 °C (strong).

How does it compare with the strongest El Niños?

1991-92+1.54 °C
1997-98+2.37 °C
2009-10+1.50 °C
2014-16+2.59 °C
2023-24+1.99 °C
2026 (now)+2.16 °C

Peak of the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for each event. Full history →

Oceanic Niño Index — last 10 years

-2-10+1+2 ASO 2016: -0.42SON 2016: -0.51OND 2016: -0.49NDJ 2016: -0.37DJF 2017: -0.08JFM 2017: +0.08FMA 2017: +0.27MAM 2017: +0.32AMJ 2017: +0.35MJJ 2017: +0.32JJA 2017: +0.14JAS 2017: -0.07ASO 2017: -0.23SON 2017: -0.44OND 2017: -0.61NDJ 2017: -0.76DJF 2018: -0.71JFM 2018: -0.67FMA 2018: -0.55MAM 2018: -0.35AMJ 2018: -0.07MJJ 2018: +0.13JJA 2018: +0.2JAS 2018: +0.3ASO 2018: +0.52SON 2018: +0.82OND 2018: +1.04NDJ 2018: +1.05DJF 2019: +0.99JFM 2019: +0.94FMA 2019: +0.87MAM 2019: +0.82AMJ 2019: +0.71MJJ 2019: +0.59JJA 2019: +0.38JAS 2019: +0.2ASO 2019: +0.31SON 2019: +0.51OND 2019: +0.72NDJ 2019: +0.75DJF 2020: +0.71JFM 2020: +0.66FMA 2020: +0.57MAM 2020: +0.33AMJ 2020: +0.04MJJ 2020: -0.18JJA 2020: -0.29JAS 2020: -0.43ASO 2020: -0.77SON 2020: -1OND 2020: -1.11NDJ 2020: -1.06DJF 2021: -0.99JFM 2021: -0.85FMA 2021: -0.74MAM 2021: -0.56AMJ 2021: -0.4MJJ 2021: -0.31JJA 2021: -0.35JAS 2021: -0.46ASO 2021: -0.64SON 2021: -0.77OND 2021: -0.91NDJ 2021: -0.83DJF 2022: -0.76JFM 2022: -0.68FMA 2022: -0.77MAM 2022: -0.86AMJ 2022: -0.83MJJ 2022: -0.73JJA 2022: -0.7JAS 2022: -0.78ASO 2022: -0.87SON 2022: -0.89OND 2022: -0.82NDJ 2022: -0.7DJF 2023: -0.55JFM 2023: -0.33FMA 2023: -0.11MAM 2023: +0.19AMJ 2023: +0.46MJJ 2023: +0.73JJA 2023: +1JAS 2023: +1.25ASO 2023: +1.5SON 2023: +1.74OND 2023: +1.9NDJ 2023: +1.99DJF 2024: +1.84JFM 2024: +1.53FMA 2024: +1.18MAM 2024: +0.77AMJ 2024: +0.43MJJ 2024: +0.18JJA 2024: +0.06JAS 2024: -0.04ASO 2024: -0.12SON 2024: -0.19OND 2024: -0.29NDJ 2024: -0.43DJF 2025: -0.46JFM 2025: -0.22FMA 2025: -0.08MAM 2025: +0.02AMJ 2025: -0.04MJJ 2025: -0.02JJA 2025: -0.11JAS 2025: -0.26ASO 2025: -0.43SON 2025: -0.57OND 2025: -0.61NDJ 2025: -0.6DJF 2026: -0.39JFM 2026: -0.21FMA 2026: +0.11MAM 2026: +0.46AMJ 2026: +0.95MJJ 2026: +1.39JJA 2026: +1.8JAS 2026: +2.16 20182020202220242026

El Niño in your city

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What El Niño means for your country

🇵🇪 PeruHeavy rain and flooding on the northern coast (Tumbes…See impacts🇪🇨 EcuadorMore rain and flooding on the coast (Guayas…See impacts🇨🇱 ChileWetter winters in central Chile (more rain in Santiago and snow in the Andes)…See impacts🇨🇴 ColombiaLess rain across much of the country: drought…See impacts🇲🇽 MexicoWetter…See impacts🇦🇷 ArgentinaMore rain in the northeast and the Pampas in spring and summer — often good for crops — but flooding along the Paraná and Uruguay rivers.…See impacts🇧🇷 BrazilDrought in the north and northeast (including the Amazon…See impacts🌎 Central AmericaDrought in the Dry Corridor (Guatemala…See impacts🇺🇸 United StatesWetter…See impacts🇦🇺 AustraliaDrier winter and spring in eastern Australia…See impacts🌏 Indonesia & the PhilippinesDrought…See impacts🇮🇳 IndiaA tendency toward a weaker summer monsoon…See impacts

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Frequently asked questions

Is there an El Niño right now?

NOAA's current ENSO status is "El Niño Advisory". This week the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +3.4 °C (El Niño threshold: +0.5 °C).

How strong is the current event?

So far the Oceanic Niño Index peaked at +2.2 °C (JAS 2026), which classifies as very strong.

When is the next official update?

NOAA publishes its ENSO diagnostic discussion monthly (usually the second Thursday). Next: 12 November 2026. This page updates automatically.