El Niño Forecast

🇲🇽 El Niño and La Niña in Mexico

El Niño is currently active (Niño 3.4: +3.4 °C), so these effects are the ones to watch now.

Current stateEl Niño Very strong NOAA: El Niño Advisory · issued 8 October 2026
Niño 3.4 this week+3.4 °Cweek of 2026-10-28

How much warmer (+) or colder (−) than normal the sea is this week in the Niño 3.4 zone of the Pacific.

Latest ONI+2.2 °CJAS 2026

Oceanic Niño Index: the 3-month average of that anomaly. It is NOAA's official index: +0.5 °C or more means El Niño; −0.5 °C or less, La Niña.

Sea surface (Niño 3.4)30.2 °Cactual temperature

The real sea surface temperature measured there, not the difference from normal.

Next NOAA update12 November 2026monthly discussion

Date of NOAA's next official El Niño / La Niña report.

Weather forecast, next 7 days

Mexico City

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Guadalajara

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Monterrey

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Mérida

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Tijuana

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Weather forecast: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), updated every hour. For official warnings, follow your national weather service.

El Niño in Mexico

Wetter, cooler winters in the north and northwest; drier summers in the south and center; fewer Atlantic hurricanes but more in the eastern Pacific.

La Niña in Mexico

Drier winters in the north (drought); more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

These are typical tendencies; each event differs in timing and intensity. For local forecasts and warnings, follow the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional.

Frequently asked questions

How does El Niño affect Mexico?

Wetter, cooler winters in the north and northwest; drier summers in the south and center; fewer Atlantic hurricanes but more in the eastern Pacific.

How does La Niña affect Mexico?

Drier winters in the north (drought); more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Where can I find official forecasts for Mexico?

Follow the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, the official source for local forecasts and warnings.

Other countries

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