El Niño in Melbourne
During El Niño, Melbourne gets on average 24% less rain in August–October than in neutral years (172 mm vs 227 mm).
Weather in Melbourne: next 7 days
Melbourne
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Weather forecast: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), updated every hour. For official warnings, follow your national weather service.
El Niño is active right now: the El Niño columns show what Melbourne typically sees in this phase.
Monthly rainfall by phase
El NiñoNeutralLa Niña
Month by month
| Month | El Niño | Neutral | La Niña | Change El Niño | Temp. El Niño / neutral |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 59 mm | 47 mm | 53 mm | +25% | 19.5 / 19.7 °C |
| February | 48 mm | 38 mm | 40 mm | +27% | 19.7 / 20.0 °C |
| March | 48 mm | 46 mm | 52 mm | +3% | 18.3 / 18.3 °C |
| April | 52 mm | 63 mm | 58 mm | -17% | 15.1 / 15.4 °C |
| May | 81 mm | 55 mm | 68 mm | +48% | 12.5 / 12.5 °C |
| June | 73 mm | 69 mm | 63 mm | +6% | 9.9 / 10.0 °C |
| July | 58 mm | 74 mm | 55 mm | -22% | 9.0 / 9.1 °C |
| August | 59 mm | 75 mm | 69 mm | -21% | 9.9 / 9.6 °C |
| September | 60 mm | 75 mm | 65 mm | -20% | 11.5 / 11.3 °C |
| October | 53 mm | 77 mm | 95 mm | -31% | 13.8 / 13.3 °C |
| November | 60 mm | 63 mm | 91 mm | -6% | 16.1 / 15.2 °C |
| December | 57 mm | 61 mm | 68 mm | -5% | 18.0 / 17.7 °C |
NASA POWER (MERRA-2), 1981–2025, classified by NOAA ONI. Averages, not a forecast.
Frequently asked questions
How does El Niño affect Melbourne?
During El Niño, Melbourne gets on average 24% less rain in August–October than in neutral years (172 mm vs 227 mm).
And La Niña?
In August–October, La Niña years average 228 mm, compared with 227 mm in neutral years.
Where does this data come from?
Monthly rainfall and temperature from NASA POWER (MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1981–2025) at -37.81, 144.96, classified by NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index for each month. These are averages; each event is different.