El Niño Forecast

El Niño in Manaus

During El Niño, Manaus gets on average 31% less rain in July–September than in neutral years (177 mm vs 256 mm).

Annual rain · El Niño1,813 mm
Annual rain · neutral2,117 mm
Annual rain · La Niña2,439 mm
Mean temp. El Niño / neutral27.3 / 26.8 °C

Weather in Manaus: next 7 days

Manaus

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Weather forecast: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), updated every hour. For official warnings, follow your national weather service.

El Niño is active right now: the El Niño columns show what Manaus typically sees in this phase.

Monthly rainfall by phase

El NiñoNeutralLa Niña

080159239319 Jan · El Niño: 196 mmJan · Neutral: 259 mmJan · La Niña: 289 mmJanFeb · El Niño: 212 mmFeb · Neutral: 254 mmFeb · La Niña: 293 mmFebMar · El Niño: 276 mmMar · Neutral: 280 mmMar · La Niña: 317 mmMarApr · El Niño: 241 mmApr · Neutral: 266 mmApr · La Niña: 319 mmAprMay · El Niño: 192 mmMay · Neutral: 211 mmMay · La Niña: 284 mmMayJun · El Niño: 97 mmJun · Neutral: 136 mmJun · La Niña: 159 mmJunJul · El Niño: 59 mmJul · Neutral: 92 mmJul · La Niña: 94 mmJulAug · El Niño: 57 mmAug · Neutral: 71 mmAug · La Niña: 60 mmAugSep · El Niño: 62 mmSep · Neutral: 93 mmSep · La Niña: 86 mmSepOct · El Niño: 103 mmOct · Neutral: 107 mmOct · La Niña: 123 mmOctNov · El Niño: 125 mmNov · Neutral: 143 mmNov · La Niña: 176 mmNovDec · El Niño: 195 mmDec · Neutral: 205 mmDec · La Niña: 240 mmDec mm

Month by month

MonthEl NiñoNeutralLa NiñaChange El NiñoTemp. El Niño / neutral
January196 mm259 mm289 mm-25%27.0 / 26.0 °C
February212 mm254 mm293 mm-17%26.8 / 25.9 °C
March276 mm280 mm317 mm-2%26.6 / 26.0 °C
April241 mm266 mm319 mm-9%26.4 / 26.0 °C
May192 mm211 mm284 mm-9%26.2 / 26.2 °C
June97 mm136 mm159 mm-29%26.1 / 25.9 °C
July59 mm92 mm94 mm-36%26.4 / 26.0 °C
August57 mm71 mm60 mm-20%27.8 / 27.2 °C
September62 mm93 mm86 mm-33%29.3 / 28.2 °C
October103 mm107 mm123 mm-3%29.4 / 28.7 °C
November125 mm143 mm176 mm-13%28.7 / 28.1 °C
December195 mm205 mm240 mm-5%27.5 / 26.8 °C

NASA POWER (MERRA-2), 1981–2025, classified by NOAA ONI. Averages, not a forecast.

Frequently asked questions

How does El Niño affect Manaus?

During El Niño, Manaus gets on average 31% less rain in July–September than in neutral years (177 mm vs 256 mm).

And La Niña?

In July–September, La Niña years average 240 mm, compared with 256 mm in neutral years.

Where does this data come from?

Monthly rainfall and temperature from NASA POWER (MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1981–2025) at -3.12, -60.02, classified by NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index for each month. These are averages; each event is different.

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