El Niño Forecast

🌎 El Niño and La Niña in Central America

El Niño is currently active (Niño 3.4: +3.4 °C), so these effects are the ones to watch now.

Current stateEl Niño Very strong NOAA: El Niño Advisory · issued 8 October 2026
Niño 3.4 this week+3.4 °Cweek of 2026-10-28

How much warmer (+) or colder (−) than normal the sea is this week in the Niño 3.4 zone of the Pacific.

Latest ONI+2.2 °CJAS 2026

Oceanic Niño Index: the 3-month average of that anomaly. It is NOAA's official index: +0.5 °C or more means El Niño; −0.5 °C or less, La Niña.

Sea surface (Niño 3.4)30.2 °Cactual temperature

The real sea surface temperature measured there, not the difference from normal.

Next NOAA update12 November 2026monthly discussion

Date of NOAA's next official El Niño / La Niña report.

Weather forecast, next 7 days

Panama City

Loading forecast…

San José

Loading forecast…

Guatemala City

Loading forecast…

Tegucigalpa

Loading forecast…

San Salvador

Loading forecast…

Managua

Loading forecast…

Weather forecast: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), updated every hour. For official warnings, follow your national weather service.

El Niño in Central America

Drought in the Dry Corridor (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua), crop losses for small farmers and lower water levels in the Panama Canal.

La Niña in Central America

Wetter conditions and more active Atlantic hurricanes.

These are typical tendencies; each event differs in timing and intensity. For local forecasts and warnings, follow each country's weather service.

Frequently asked questions

How does El Niño affect Central America?

Drought in the Dry Corridor (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua), crop losses for small farmers and lower water levels in the Panama Canal.

How does La Niña affect Central America?

Wetter conditions and more active Atlantic hurricanes.

Where can I find official forecasts for Central America?

Follow each country's weather service, the official source for local forecasts and warnings.

Other countries

Get an email when El Niño changes

One short email when NOAA changes the El Niño / La Niña status, and a monthly summary. Free, unsubscribe anytime.

We only use your email for these alerts. Privacy