El Niño Forecast

🌏 El Niño and La Niña in Indonesia & the Philippines

El Niño is currently active (Niño 3.4: +3.4 °C), so these effects are the ones to watch now.

Current stateEl Niño Very strong NOAA: El Niño Advisory · issued 8 October 2026
Niño 3.4 this week+3.4 °Cweek of 2026-10-28

How much warmer (+) or colder (−) than normal the sea is this week in the Niño 3.4 zone of the Pacific.

Latest ONI+2.2 °CJAS 2026

Oceanic Niño Index: the 3-month average of that anomaly. It is NOAA's official index: +0.5 °C or more means El Niño; −0.5 °C or less, La Niña.

Sea surface (Niño 3.4)30.2 °Cactual temperature

The real sea surface temperature measured there, not the difference from normal.

Next NOAA update12 November 2026monthly discussion

Date of NOAA's next official El Niño / La Niña report.

Weather forecast, next 7 days

Jakarta

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Manila

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Weather forecast: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), updated every hour. For official warnings, follow your national weather service.

El Niño in Indonesia & the Philippines

Drought, forest and peat fires with regional haze, and lower rice production.

La Niña in Indonesia & the Philippines

Heavier rain and flooding.

These are typical tendencies; each event differs in timing and intensity. For local forecasts and warnings, follow BMKG and PAGASA.

Frequently asked questions

How does El Niño affect Indonesia & the Philippines?

Drought, forest and peat fires with regional haze, and lower rice production.

How does La Niña affect Indonesia & the Philippines?

Heavier rain and flooding.

Where can I find official forecasts for Indonesia & the Philippines?

Follow BMKG and PAGASA, the official source for local forecasts and warnings.

Other countries

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