El Niño 2027: what to expect
Will there be an El Niño in 2027? Right now El Niño 2026 is under way (ONI +2.5 °C in ASO 2026, Niño 3.4 +3.4 °C). Here is what NOAA says and what history suggests.
What NOAA says
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
Official status: El Niño Advisory. The next NOAA ENSO report is due 12 November 2026.
What history suggests
Since 1950, 10 of 22 El Niño events were followed by a La Niña within about a year of ending; for strong El Niños (peak ≥ +1.5 °C) it happened 4 of 9 times. Back-to-back El Niño years are less common: strong events usually swing to neutral or La Niña the following year.
| Strong El Niño | Peak | What came next |
|---|---|---|
| El Niño 1957-1958 | +1.7 °C | El Niño 1963-1964 (after a neutral gap) |
| El Niño 1965-1966 | +1.8 °C | El Niño 1968-1969 (after a neutral gap) |
| El Niño 1972-1973 | +1.8 °C | La Niña 1973-1974 |
| El Niño 1982-1983 | +2.1 °C | La Niña 1983-1984 |
| El Niño 1991-1992 | +1.5 °C | El Niño 1994-1995 (after a neutral gap) |
| El Niño 1997-1998 | +2.4 °C | La Niña 1998-2000 |
| El Niño 2009-2010 | +1.5 °C | La Niña 2010-2011 |
| El Niño 2014-2016 | +2.6 °C | La Niña 2017-2018 (after a neutral gap) |
| El Niño 2023-2024 | +2.0 °C | El Niño 2026 (after a neutral gap) |
Past behaviour is not a forecast: always check the latest NOAA outlook.
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Frequently asked questions
Will there be an El Niño in 2027?
NOAA's latest status is "El Niño Advisory". Historically, after a strong El Niño the following year is more often neutral or La Niña (4 of 9 strong events were followed by La Niña).
Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index (public domain).