El Niño Forecast
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El Niño and La Niña in numbers

43 episodes in 77 years of NOAA data (1950–2026).

El Niño episodes23one every 3.3 years
La Niña episodes20one every 3.9 years
Average El Niño12 monthspeak +1.4 °C
Average La Niña13 monthspeak -1.2 °C
Highest ONI+2.6 °CNDJ 2015
Lowest ONI-2.0 °CNDJ 1973
Where does the current event rank?

El Niño 2026 has reached +2.5 °C so far: #2 of 23 El Niño episodes since 1950.

Time spent in each phase

Share of all 3-month seasons since 1950 by ONI value (±0.5 °C threshold).

The 10 strongest El Niño events

#EpisodePeak ONIMonths
1El Niño 2014-2016+2.6 °CNDJ 201522
2El Niño 2026+2.5 °CASO 20267
3El Niño 1997-1998+2.4 °CNDJ 199714
4El Niño 1982-1983+2.1 °CDJF 198316
5El Niño 2023-2024+2.0 °CNDJ 202313
6El Niño 1972-1973+1.8 °COND 197212
7El Niño 1965-1966+1.8 °COND 196512
8El Niño 1957-1958+1.7 °CDJF 195816
9El Niño 1991-1992+1.5 °CDJF 199215
10El Niño 2009-2010+1.5 °CNDJ 200911

The 10 strongest La Niña events

#EpisodePeak ONIMonths
1La Niña 1973-1974-2.0 °CNDJ 197316
2La Niña 1988-1989-1.9 °CNDJ 198815
3La Niña 2007-2008-1.8 °CDJF 200813
4La Niña 1955-1956-1.6 °COND 195516
5La Niña 1974-1976-1.6 °CNDJ 197520
6La Niña 2010-2011-1.6 °COND 201014
7La Niña 1998-2000-1.5 °CNDJ 199926
8La Niña 1970-1972-1.4 °CJFM 197121
9La Niña 1950-1951-1.3 °CDJF 195015
10La Niña 2020-2021-1.1 °COND 202010

Longest episodes

#EpisodeMonthsPeak
1La Niña 1998-200026-1.5 °C
2El Niño 2014-201622+2.6 °C
3La Niña 1970-197221-1.4 °C
4La Niña 1974-197620-1.6 °C
5El Niño 1986-198819+1.5 °C
6La Niña 2021-202319-0.9 °C
7La Niña 1955-195616-1.6 °C
8El Niño 1957-195816+1.7 °C

Episodes per decade

DecadeEl NiñoLa Niña
1950s32
1960s31
1970s33
1980s23
1990s32
2000s44
2010s33
2020s22

Episodes by strength

StrengthPeak |ONI|El NiñoLa Niña
Weak0.5–0.9 °C87
Moderate1.0–1.4 °C56
Strong1.5–1.9 °C66
Very strong≥ 2.0 °C41

Frequently asked questions

How often does El Niño happen?

Since 1950 there have been 23 El Niño episodes in 77 years: on average one every 3.3 years, though the gap ranges from 1 to 5+ years.

How long does an El Niño last?

On average about 12 months; La Niña averages about 13 months and more often lasts two or three winters.

What was the strongest El Niño?

By peak ONI, El Niño 2014-2016 (+2.6 °C), followed by El Niño 2026 and El Niño 1997-1998.

When does El Niño usually peak?

Most often in NDJ (Nov–Jan), during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

All episodesFull ONI tableDownload CSV

Computed from NOAA CPC's Oceanic Niño Index (ERSSTv5). Free to cite with a link to elninoforecast.com.